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DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average)

 
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lucky



Joined: 29 Mar 2017
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:41 am    Post subject: DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) Reply with quote

DVOA was created by Aaron Schatz of Authentic #85 Jack Youngblood Youth Jersey Football Outsiders and serves as his site's core metric. The stat measures a team's success on a given play (through points and yards gained or lost) versus what would have been expected after accounting for the down, distance, game situation and quality of the opponent. The result is expressed in percentages, so a team with a DVOA of 10 percent is that http://www.authenticramsofficialshop.com/Nike-Jack-Youngblood-Jersey.html much better than the league average on a play-by-play basis. The most helpful element of DVOA is that you can split it all kinds of different ways to figure out, say, a team's performance on offense in the red zone or their defense on third down. (The scale flips for defensive DVOA since you're trying to prevent the other team from scoring, so a DVOA of minus-10 percent is better than a DVOA of 10 percent on that side of the ball.) DVOA also does a better job of correlating with winning in the future than a team's win-loss record itself. You can read more #68 Jamon Brown Authentic Jersey about DVOA here. It can also be applied to players, but it's a far less effective metric for individual team members given the difficulty in comparing players across different schemes and styles. Individual DVOA has some limited uses, such as comparing running backs on the same team who play behind the same offensive line. 2017 impact: The Texans made the playoffs at 9-7 but finished a staggeringly low 29th in DVOA, sandwiched between the abysmal 49ers and Rams. On the other hand, the Eagles finished fourth in DVOA -- between the Falcons and Steelers -- but won only seven games, thanks in part to a tough schedule. DVOA would expect Houston's record to decline and Philadelphia's to improve next season. A team's point differential is also a better measure of future wins than its actual win total, a reality that holds true in many other major professional leagues. As http://www.authenticramsofficialshop.com/Nike-Jamon-Brown-Jersey.html an example, consider the 99 teams who finished 8-8 between 1989 and 2015. The 51 teams with a point differential greater than or equal to zero won an average of 8.6 games the following year. The 48 teams who posted a negative point differential won an average of 7.3 contests the next season. We can figure out how many games a team "should" have won in a given season based off their point differential by calculating their Pythagorean expectation, a metric invented by Bill James for baseball and applied to football by Daryl Morey. The latter figured it out for Stats Inc. before going on to run the Houston Rockets. The formula spits out a winning percentage, which fans can multiply by 16 to get an expected win total. More often than not, teams whose win total outstrips their Pythagorean expectation will decline the following year, as was the case with the 2016 Panthers and Broncos. The Authentic Jeff Allen Youth Jersey opposite is true for teams who underperform their Pythagorean expectation, which helped push the Cowboys, Giants and Titans toward winning records last season. 2017 impact: The Raiders won 12 games but outscored their opponents by only 31 points, producing a Pythagorean expectation of 8.7 wins. That gap -- 3.3 wins -- is the fourth-largest since 1989. They're likely to decline. The Jaguars, meanwhile, went 3-13 with the Pythagorean expectation of a 5.9-win team. Jacksonville might not be great, but that 2.9-win gap suggests the Jags should be looking up in 2017. Closely related to the gap between a team's point differential and their actual record is how they perform in close contests. Historically, with precious few exceptions, teams will win games that are decided by seven points or less about 50 percent of the time. (I'm using seven points as opposed to eight to make it easier to compare teams across eras when the two-point conversion was not part of the NFL game.) Evidence suggests that teams like the 2001 Bears, a squad that went 8-0 in games decided http://www.houstontexansjerseystore.com/Jeff_Allen_Jersey_Cheap by seven points or fewer, are extremely unlikely to keep that up year after year. The following year, those same Bears went 4-6 in one-score games, with their overall record falling from 13-3 to 4-12. To be clear, teams aren't "due" to decline and have a subpar record the following year; that's the gambler's fallacy. Teams with particularly good or bad marks during a year of one-score games are equally likely to be great or terrible in those games the following year. Our expectation is that they'll be average, which is what we call regression toward the mean. 2017 impact: The Dolphins went 8-2 in one-score games last season, with seven of their final eight wins coming by seven points or fewer. It's unlikely they'll be as effective in close games again. Meanwhile, the Chargers were 1-8 in one-score contests. They're likely to improve, but so were the 2016 Chargers after the 2015 version of the team went 3-8 in those same games. Even if teams with terrible records in one-score games might improve 90 percent of the time the following year, nothing is guaranteed in the NFL.
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Joined: 10 May 2018
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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 8:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

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